Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Fortaleza EC / Atletico Goianiense)
- 1.23 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Fortaleza EC / Atletico Goianiense)
- 0.86 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza EC goals. Columns: Atletico Goianiense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza EC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Goianiense) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense recent form
Fortaleza EC
2W 4D 0L
Atletico Goianiense
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza EC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-7-1
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Atletico Goianiense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza EC at home only, Atletico Goianiense away only.
Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Fortaleza EC 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Goianiense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Atletico Goianiense | 1-0 | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
- Londrina vs America Mineiro 2026-11-01
- Cuiaba v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-01
- Novorizontino vs Operario-PR 2026-11-01
- Athletic Club v Ceara — match page 2026-11-02
- Goias v CRB — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Fortaleza EC, previous: Ponte Preta v Fortaleza EC analysis
- Atletico Goianiense, previous: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino: odds and pick