Cuiaba vs São Bernardo preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Cuiaba and São Bernardo, the 1X2 probabilities show Cuiaba at 41%, São Bernardo at 28%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Cuiaba has an expected goals figure of 1.22, while São Bernardo stands at 0.95.
Cuiaba's recent form includes two losses, a draw, and two wins, while São Bernardo has won two, lost two, and drawn one of their last five matches. Both teams to score is at 45%, indicating a moderate chance that both teams will find the net. However, the recent form and head-to-head record, which shows one draw and no wins for either side, could lead to a different outcome.
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo: model vs market
| Source | Cuiaba | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 32% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cuiaba and São Bernardo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Cuiaba / São Bernardo)
- 0.91 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Cuiaba / São Bernardo)
- 0.81 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cuiaba goals. Columns: São Bernardo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cuiaba vs São Bernardo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.16 | |
| São Bernardo | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cuiaba or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or São Bernardo) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cuiaba and São Bernardo recent form
Cuiaba
2W 1D 3L
São Bernardo
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cuiaba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-3
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
São Bernardo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cuiaba at home only, São Bernardo away only.
Cuiaba vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cuiaba 0 · draws 1 · São Bernardo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | São Bernardo | 2-2 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
- Londrina vs America Mineiro 2026-11-01
- Novorizontino vs Operario-PR 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Cuiaba, previous: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba prediction
- São Bernardo, previous: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction