Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 37

Cuiaba vs Juventude

· Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba· Referee Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento

Alin prediction Juventude to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CuiabaDrawJuventude
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.99.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventude is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Cuiaba4.20 Draw3.50 Juventude2.00

Price as of

Expected return at 2.00: -4.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Cuiaba vs Juventude preview

Cuiaba faces Juventude with a 25% chance of winning compared to Juventude's 47%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Juventude's stronger recent form, having won 4 of their last 6 matches. Cuiaba, on the other hand, has struggled with 4 losses in their last 5 games.

While there is a 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score, these outcomes could be affected by Cuiaba's low expected goals of 0.99. If they fail to improve their attacking performance, the match may not see the high-scoring action some expect.

Cuiaba vs Juventude: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCuiabaDrawJuventude
Model27%30%43%
Market23%28%49%
Published24%29%48%
Edge+1%+1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Cuiaba vs Juventude odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.45Now 1.89 -0.56
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cuiaba2.904.05+1.15
Draw3.043.32+0.28
Juventude2.451.89-0.56

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cuiaba and Juventude expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99Cuiaba
1.32Juventude
Total expected goals
2.31
Attack rating (Cuiaba / Juventude)
0.84 / 1.50
Defence rating (Cuiaba / Juventude)
0.91 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cuiaba vs Juventude score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 11.8% 8.7% 3.8% 1.7% 1 8.5% 14.3% 8.6% 3.8% 1.7% 2 4.9% 6.4% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8% 3 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Cuiaba goals. Columns: Juventude goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cuiaba vs Juventude goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cuiaba vs Juventude

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cuiaba24%4.20
Draw29%3.50
Juventude48%2.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.46
Under 2.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.11
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (Cuiaba or draw)52%1.91
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Juventude)76%1.31
Handicap -1Juventude win by 2+21%4.88
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Cuiaba and Juventude recent form

Cuiaba 1W 1D 4L
Juventude 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cuiaba at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-7-4
Win rate
39%
Goals for / match
1.11
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
9 of 18
  • They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Juventude away

Record (W-D-L)
7-6-5
Win rate
39%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
10 of 18
  • They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 23 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Cuiaba at home only, Juventude away only.

Cuiaba vs Juventude head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Cuiaba 4 · draws 4 · Juventude 1.

CuiabaDrawsJuventude
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-17Juventude2-0CuiabaBrazil Serie B
2024-11-23Juventude1-1CuiabaSerie A
2024-09-05Cuiaba0-0JuventudeSerie A
2022-08-13Cuiaba1-0JuventudeSerie A
2022-04-24Juventude0-1CuiabaSerie A
2021-09-11Juventude1-2CuiabaSerie A
2021-05-29Cuiaba2-2JuventudeSerie A
2021-01-06Cuiaba1-0JuventudeSerie B
2020-10-06Juventude1-1CuiabaSerie B

Other Matchday 37 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Juventude to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Juventude
Our pick: Juventude to win 18+ Bet Now