Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense preview
In the match between Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense, both teams have a 35% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. Athletic Club has struggled recently with a record of L-D-D-L-L-D, while Atletico Goianiense has shown some improvement, winning their last match after a series of draws and losses.
The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.17, and the likelihood of both teams to score is 49%. However, the recent form of Athletic Club could lead to a different outcome, as they have not won in their last five matches. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Goianiense, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 3.72 | 3.90 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.44 | +0.13 |
| Atletico Goianiense | 1.96 | 1.87 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Atletico Goianiense)
- 1.09 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Atletico Goianiense)
- 1.17 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Atletico Goianiense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 27% | 3.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Goianiense) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win by 2+ | 13% | 7.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Athletic Club and Atletico Goianiense recent form
Athletic Club
1W 2D 3L
Atletico Goianiense
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-5
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.28
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Atletico Goianiense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-5
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Atletico Goianiense away only.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Athletic Club 0 · draws 2 · Atletico Goianiense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Atletico Goianiense | 0-0 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-04 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-07 | Atletico Goianiense | 4-2 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-07
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-11-07
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma 2026-11-07
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page 2026-11-07
- Nautico Recife vs CRB 2026-11-08
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Goias vs Ponte Preta — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, previous: Athletic Club v Ceara analysis
- Atletico Goianiense, previous: Fortaleza EC – Atletico Goianiense, 2026-11-02