Goias vs Ponte Preta preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Goias and Ponte Preta, the 1X2 probabilities show Goias at 79%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 17%. Goias has an expected goals figure of 2.33, while Ponte Preta's is only 0.46. This suggests a strong advantage for Goias.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Ponte Preta's recent form is concerning, with 6 matches resulting in 5 losses and 1 draw. If they manage to improve their performance, it could challenge the expected outcome, particularly affecting the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 34%.
Goias vs Ponte Preta: model vs market
| Source | Goias | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 14% | 4% |
| Market | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Published | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Goias vs Ponte Preta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Goias, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 1.11 | 1.12 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 7.80 | 8.20 | +0.40 |
| Ponte Preta | 17.67 | 19.00 | +1.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Goias and Ponte Preta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Goias / Ponte Preta)
- 1.06 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Goias / Ponte Preta)
- 0.84 / 1.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Goias vs Ponte Preta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Goias goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Goias vs Ponte Preta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Goias vs Ponte Preta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 83% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.23 | |
| Ponte Preta | 5% | 20.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.84 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Goias or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Ponte Preta) | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Goias and Ponte Preta recent form
Goias
4W 1D 1L
Ponte Preta
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Goias at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-6
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-17
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 2.78
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 18
- They have won 3 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Goias at home only, Ponte Preta away only.
Goias vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Goias 1 · draws 0 · Ponte Preta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ponte Preta | 1-2 | Goias | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-07
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-11-07
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma 2026-11-07
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page 2026-11-07
- Nautico Recife vs CRB 2026-11-08
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Goias, previous: Goias vs CRB prediction
- Ponte Preta, previous: Criciuma – Ponte Preta, 2026-10-30