Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 37

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

· Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons· Referee Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Alin prediction Novorizontino to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NovorizontinoDrawFortaleza EC
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Novorizontino is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Novorizontino1.85 Draw3.55 Fortaleza EC4.69

Price as of

Expected return at 1.85: -2.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC preview

In the Brazil Serie B match between Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC, the 1X2 probabilities show Novorizontino at 53%, draw at 27%, and Fortaleza EC at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Novorizontino has shown strong recent form with 6 consecutive wins, while Fortaleza EC has struggled, drawing 4 of their last 6 matches.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 46%. This suggests that while Novorizontino is expected to win, the scoring might be limited. If Fortaleza EC can improve their attacking performance, they could challenge Novorizontino's defense, potentially altering the predicted outcome.

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNovorizontinoDrawFortaleza EC
Model57%26%17%
Market51%27%22%
Published52%27%20%
Edge+2%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Novorizontino, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.79Now 1.83 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Novorizontino1.791.83+0.05
Draw3.393.40+0.01
Fortaleza EC4.394.33-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Novorizontino
0.81Fortaleza EC
Total expected goals
2.50
Attack rating (Novorizontino / Fortaleza EC)
1.65 / 1.12
Defence rating (Novorizontino / Fortaleza EC)
0.75 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 5.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.7% 12.4% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 3 6.6% 5.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Novorizontino goals. Columns: Fortaleza EC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Novorizontino52%1.91
Draw27%3.68
Fortaleza EC20%4.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.15
No54%1.87
Double chance1X (Novorizontino or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Fortaleza EC)48%2.10
Handicap -1Novorizontino win by 2+32%3.09
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC recent form

Novorizontino 5W 1D 0L
Fortaleza EC 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Novorizontino at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-4-3
Win rate
61%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
0.89
Clean sheets
5 of 18
  • They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza EC away

Record (W-D-L)
7-6-5
Win rate
39%
Goals for / match
0.89
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
9 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Novorizontino at home only, Fortaleza EC away only.

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Novorizontino 0 · draws 0 · Fortaleza EC 1.

NovorizontinoDrawsFortaleza EC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-18Fortaleza EC1-0NovorizontinoBrazil Serie B

Other Matchday 37 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Novorizontino to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Novorizontino
Our pick: Novorizontino to win 18+ Bet Now