Vila Nova vs Criciuma preview
In the upcoming match between Vila Nova and Criciuma, Vila Nova has a 44% probability of winning compared to Criciuma's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Vila Nova, with a 13% chance of occurring. Vila Nova's expected goals stand at 1.48, while Criciuma's is lower at 0.90, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, both teams to score has a 47% probability, suggesting that Criciuma could find the net. Vila Nova's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Criciuma has 4 wins and 2 losses in the same period. This could lead to a more competitive match than the numbers indicate.
Vila Nova vs Criciuma: model vs market
| Source | Vila Nova | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vila Nova vs Criciuma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vila Nova, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 2.24 | 2.21 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.10 | +0.02 |
| Criciuma | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vila Nova and Criciuma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Vila Nova / Criciuma)
- 1.31 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Vila Nova / Criciuma)
- 0.95 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vila Nova vs Criciuma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vila Nova goals. Columns: Criciuma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vila Nova vs Criciuma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vila Nova vs Criciuma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Criciuma | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vila Nova or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Criciuma) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vila Nova and Criciuma recent form
Vila Nova
2W 3D 1L
Criciuma
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vila Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-5-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Criciuma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-7
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vila Nova at home only, Criciuma away only.
Vila Nova vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vila Nova 1 · draws 5 · Criciuma 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Criciuma | 2-0 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-10-03 | Vila Nova | 1-1 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-06-09 | Criciuma | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-08-23 | Criciuma | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2023-05-12 | Vila Nova | 0-0 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2022-10-04 | Vila Nova | 1-0 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2022-06-25 | Criciuma | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2019-10-01 | Vila Nova | 1-1 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2019-06-08 | Criciuma | 1-1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2018-11-17 | Vila Nova | 2-2 | Criciuma | Serie B |
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-07
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-11-07
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page 2026-11-07
- Nautico Recife vs CRB 2026-11-08
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Goias vs Ponte Preta — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Vila Nova, previous: Vila Nova v Juventude analysis
- Criciuma, previous: Criciuma – Ponte Preta, 2026-10-30