Vila Nova vs Juventude preview
In the match between Vila Nova and Juventude, the 1X2 probabilities show Vila Nova at 45%, with Juventude at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which has an 11% chance of occurring. Vila Nova's expected goals stand at 1.42, while Juventude's are lower at 1.04.
Both teams to score has a 50% probability, indicating a balanced potential for goals from both sides. However, recent form shows Vila Nova with a mixed performance of L-D-W-D-W-W, while Juventude has been more consistent with D-D-W-W-W-L. This could affect the outcome, as form can influence team confidence and performance on the day.
Vila Nova vs Juventude: model vs market
| Source | Vila Nova | Draw | Juventude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.04.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vila Nova and Juventude expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Vila Nova / Juventude)
- 1.25 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Vila Nova / Juventude)
- 0.87 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vila Nova vs Juventude score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vila Nova goals. Columns: Juventude goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vila Nova vs Juventude goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vila Nova vs Juventude
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Juventude | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vila Nova or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventude) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 22% | 4.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vila Nova and Juventude recent form
Vila Nova
3W 2D 1L
Juventude
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vila Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-4-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Juventude away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-5
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Vila Nova at home only, Juventude away only.
Vila Nova vs Juventude head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Vila Nova 0 · draws 0 · Juventude 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Juventude | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Criciuma v Ponte Preta — match page 2026-10-30
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Nautico Recife vs Avai 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Vila Nova, previous: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction
- Juventude, previous: Juventude v Nautico Recife analysis