Nautico Recife vs Avai preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Nautico Recife and Avai, the 1X2 probabilities show Nautico Recife at 44%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. Nautico Recife's recent form includes 1 win in 6 matches, while Avai has 2 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals are 1.14 for Nautico Recife and 0.75 for Avai, indicating a low-scoring match. The model suggests a 29% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. However, Nautico Recife's struggles in recent games could lead to an unexpected result.
Nautico Recife vs Avai: model vs market
| Source | Nautico Recife | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 34% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 34% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.75.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nautico Recife and Avai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.89
- Attack rating (Nautico Recife / Avai)
- 0.85 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Nautico Recife / Avai)
- 1.11 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nautico Recife vs Avai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nautico Recife goals. Columns: Avai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nautico Recife vs Avai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nautico Recife vs Avai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Avai | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nautico Recife or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Avai) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nautico Recife win by 2+ | 19% | 5.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Nautico Recife and Avai recent form
Nautico Recife
1W 2D 3L
Avai
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nautico Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-11
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.59
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nautico Recife at home only, Avai away only.
Nautico Recife vs Avai head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Nautico Recife 0 · draws 0 · Avai 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Avai | 2-0 | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
- Criciuma v Ponte Preta — match page 2026-10-30
- Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vila Nova vs Juventude — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Nautico Recife, previous: Juventude v Nautico Recife analysis
- Avai, previous: Avai vs Botafogo SP prediction