Avai vs São Bernardo preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Avai and São Bernardo, the 1X2 probabilities show Avai at 43%, while São Bernardo sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 9% of the time. Avai's recent form includes 2 losses and 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while São Bernardo has won 4 of their last 5, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
The expected goals for Avai are 0.86, compared to São Bernardo's 1.21, suggesting that scoring could be a challenge for the home side. With only a 34% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score, the match could end up being low-scoring, which might contradict the expected outcome.
Avai vs São Bernardo: model vs market
| Source | Avai | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Published | 35% | 30% | 34% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Avai vs São Bernardo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avai, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 1.91 | 2.38 | +0.47 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.11 | -0.21 |
| São Bernardo | 3.94 | 2.94 | -1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avai and São Bernardo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Avai / São Bernardo)
- 0.65 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Avai / São Bernardo)
- 1.02 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avai vs São Bernardo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avai goals. Columns: São Bernardo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avai vs São Bernardo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avai vs São Bernardo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.29 | |
| São Bernardo | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avai or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or São Bernardo) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win by 2+ | 9% | 11.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avai and São Bernardo recent form
Avai
2W 1D 3L
São Bernardo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
São Bernardo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.61
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avai at home only, São Bernardo away only.
Avai vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Avai 0 · draws 1 · São Bernardo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | São Bernardo | 1-1 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-11-07
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma 2026-11-07
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page 2026-11-07
- Nautico Recife vs CRB 2026-11-08
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Goias vs Ponte Preta — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Avai, previous: Nautico Recife v Avai analysis
- São Bernardo, previous: Cuiaba vs São Bernardo: odds and pick