Ceara vs America Mineiro preview
Ceara faces America Mineiro with 1X2 probabilities showing Ceara at 45%, America Mineiro at 24%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Ceara's expected goals stand at 1.26, while America Mineiro's is lower at 0.85.
Ceara's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss, while America Mineiro has 3 wins and 3 losses. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams to score is at 42%. However, if America Mineiro improves their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Ceara vs America Mineiro: model vs market
| Source | Ceara | Draw | America Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.91.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ceara vs America Mineiro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ceara, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 1.64 | 1.65 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.64 | -0.06 |
| America Mineiro | 5.10 | 4.90 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ceara and America Mineiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Ceara / America Mineiro)
- 0.93 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Ceara / America Mineiro)
- 1.17 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ceara vs America Mineiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ceara goals. Columns: America Mineiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ceara vs America Mineiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ceara vs America Mineiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| America Mineiro | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ceara or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or America Mineiro) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win by 2+ | 19% | 5.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ceara and America Mineiro recent form
Ceara
2W 1D 3L
America Mineiro
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ceara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-6
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America Mineiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-14
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 18
- They have won 6 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 35 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ceara at home only, America Mineiro away only.
Ceara vs America Mineiro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ceara 0 · draws 1 · America Mineiro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | America Mineiro | 1-1 | Ceara | Brazil Serie B |
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Before and after this match
- Ceara, previous: Athletic Club v Ceara analysis
- America Mineiro, previous: Londrina vs America Mineiro: odds and pick