Athletic Club vs Ceara preview
In the match between Athletic Club and Ceara, the 1X2 probabilities show Athletic Club at 40%, Ceara at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%.
Athletic Club's recent form includes 1 draw and 4 losses, while Ceara has 2 wins and 3 draws. This difference in form could impact the match outcome, as Ceara has shown better results lately. The expected goals are 1.44 for Athletic Club and 1.25 for Ceara, indicating a competitive match. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions.
Athletic Club vs Ceara: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Athletic Club and Ceara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Ceara)
- 1.04 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Ceara)
- 1.18 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Ceara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Ceara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Ceara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Ceara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Ceara | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Ceara) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 20% | 5.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Athletic Club and Ceara recent form
Athletic Club
0W 3D 3L
Ceara
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-5
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Ceara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Ceara away only.
Athletic Club vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Athletic Club 0 · draws 1 · Ceara 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Ceara | 0-0 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
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- Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Goias v CRB — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, previous: Operario-PR vs Athletic Club: odds and pick
- Ceara, previous: Ceara – Goias, 2026-10-27