Botafogo SP vs Londrina preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture, Botafogo SP has a 55% chance to win against Londrina, who has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for Botafogo SP and 0.86 for Londrina.
Botafogo SP's recent form shows 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Londrina has struggled with 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses. The model suggests a 47% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. However, if Londrina improves their performance, they could challenge Botafogo SP's dominance in this matchup.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo SP | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Botafogo SP vs Londrina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botafogo SP, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 1.75 | 1.71 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.68 | +0.06 |
| Londrina | 4.33 | 4.50 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botafogo SP and Londrina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Londrina)
- 0.98 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Londrina)
- 0.85 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Londrina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo SP vs Londrina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Londrina | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo SP or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Londrina) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo SP and Londrina recent form
Botafogo SP
4W 1D 1L
Londrina
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo SP at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-7
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Londrina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-12
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.72
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 18
- They have won 8 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Londrina away only.
Botafogo SP vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Botafogo SP 3 · draws 3 · Londrina 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Londrina | 0-0 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-11-25 | Botafogo SP | 0-1 | Londrina | Serie B |
| 2023-07-24 | Londrina | 1-2 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2019-11-16 | Londrina | 1-1 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2019-08-20 | Botafogo SP | 2-1 | Londrina | Serie B |
| 2013-08-04 | Londrina | 0-0 | Botafogo SP | Serie D |
| 2013-07-20 | Botafogo SP | 2-0 | Londrina | Serie D |
Other Matchday 37 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Sport Recife — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Avai v São Bernardo — match page 2026-11-07
- Novorizontino v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-11-07
- Vila Nova vs Criciuma 2026-11-07
- Cuiaba v Juventude — match page 2026-11-07
- Nautico Recife vs CRB 2026-11-08
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ceara vs America Mineiro — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Botafogo SP, previous: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife prediction
- Londrina, previous: Londrina vs America Mineiro: odds and pick