Juventude vs Botafogo SP preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture, Juventude faces Botafogo SP, with 1X2 probabilities showing Juventude at 48% and Botafogo SP at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which is predicted at 10%. Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides.
Juventude's expected goals are 1.60 while Botafogo SP's are 1.09, suggesting a potential edge for Juventude in creating chances. However, Botafogo SP has shown strong recent form with 6 consecutive wins, which could challenge Juventude's home advantage. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP: model vs market
| Source | Juventude | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.09.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Juventude vs Botafogo SP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 1.62 | 1.36 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 4.40 | +0.80 |
| Botafogo SP | 5.50 | 8.38 | +2.88 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventude and Botafogo SP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Juventude / Botafogo SP)
- 1.54 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Juventude / Botafogo SP)
- 0.92 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventude goals. Columns: Botafogo SP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventude vs Botafogo SP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Botafogo SP | 14% | 6.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventude or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo SP) | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juventude and Botafogo SP recent form
Juventude
3W 3D 0L
Botafogo SP
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventude at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-2
- Win rate
- 61%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 13 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Botafogo SP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventude at home only, Botafogo SP away only.
Juventude vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Juventude 0 · draws 0 · Botafogo SP 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Botafogo SP | 4-2 | Juventude | Brazil Serie B |
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Before and after this match
- Juventude, previous: Cuiaba vs Juventude prediction
- Botafogo SP, previous: Botafogo SP v Londrina analysis