Sport Recife vs Goias preview
In the match between Sport Recife and Goias, the 1X2 probabilities show Goias at 40%, Sport Recife at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Goias has shown strong recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Sport Recife has only managed 2 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Sport Recife at 1.19 and Goias at 1.29. There is a 52% chance for both teams to score and a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals. However, if Sport Recife can improve their performance at home, they may challenge Goias more effectively.
Sport Recife vs Goias: model vs market
| Source | Sport Recife | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sport Recife vs Goias odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Goias, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 2.75 | 3.50 | +0.75 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.61 | +0.01 |
| Goias | 2.27 | 1.94 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Recife and Goias expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Sport Recife / Goias)
- 1.19 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Sport Recife / Goias)
- 1.26 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Recife vs Goias score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Recife goals. Columns: Goias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Recife vs Goias goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Recife vs Goias
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Goias | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Recife or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Goias) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Recife and Goias recent form
Sport Recife
2W 2D 2L
Goias
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-7-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Recife at home only, Goias away only.
Sport Recife vs Goias head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sport Recife 0 · draws 1 · Goias 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Goias | 1-1 | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Sport Recife, previous: Operario-PR – Sport Recife, 2026-11-06
- Goias, previous: Goias v Ponte Preta analysis