Criciuma vs Novorizontino preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Criciuma and Novorizontino, the 1X2 probabilities show a close contest with Criciuma at 34%, Novorizontino at 35%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. Novorizontino's recent form is strong, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Criciuma has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals indicate a difference, with Criciuma at 0.91 and Novorizontino at 1.43. This suggests that Novorizontino may have the upper hand. However, Criciuma's head-to-head record shows 2 wins and 1 draw against Novorizontino in their last 3 meetings, which could influence the outcome. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 41%, and both teams to score is at 47%.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino: model vs market
| Source | Criciuma | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Market | 33% | 31% | 37% |
| Published | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Criciuma vs Novorizontino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Novorizontino, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 2.18 | 2.83 | +0.65 |
| Draw | 2.82 | 3.02 | +0.21 |
| Novorizontino | 3.70 | 2.53 | -1.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Criciuma and Novorizontino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Criciuma / Novorizontino)
- 0.88 / 1.67
- Defence rating (Criciuma / Novorizontino)
- 0.88 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Criciuma goals. Columns: Novorizontino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Criciuma vs Novorizontino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Novorizontino | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Criciuma or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Novorizontino) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Criciuma and Novorizontino recent form
Criciuma
3W 0D 3L
Novorizontino
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Criciuma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-3
- Win rate
- 61%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.72
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 18
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Criciuma at home only, Novorizontino away only.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Criciuma 2 · draws 1 · Novorizontino 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Novorizontino | 0-1 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-23 | Criciuma | 2-0 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-21 | Novorizontino | 1-1 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Criciuma, previous: Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction
- Novorizontino, previous: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC: odds and pick