Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova preview
In the upcoming match between Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova, the 1X2 probabilities show Fortaleza EC at 40%, while Vila Nova is also at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Fortaleza EC, with a probability of 11%.
Both teams have had mixed recent form, with Fortaleza EC recording L-D-D-W-D-W and Vila Nova showing W-D-L-D-W-D. The expected goals are 1.29 for Fortaleza EC and 1.08 for Vila Nova. While there's a 49% chance for both teams to score and a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals, the recent head-to-head record favors Vila Nova, who won their last encounter, which could challenge the predictions.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 33% |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortaleza EC, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 2.17 | 2.54 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 3.04 | 3.05 | +0.01 |
| Vila Nova | 3.52 | 2.76 | -0.76 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Fortaleza EC / Vila Nova)
- 1.11 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Fortaleza EC / Vila Nova)
- 0.89 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza EC goals. Columns: Vila Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Vila Nova | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza EC or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Vila Nova) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win by 2+ | 19% | 5.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova recent form
Fortaleza EC
2W 3D 1L
Vila Nova
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza EC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-8-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-8
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza EC at home only, Vila Nova away only.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Fortaleza EC 0 · draws 0 · Vila Nova 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Vila Nova | 2-1 | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Fortaleza EC, previous: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC: odds and pick
- Vila Nova, previous: Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction