America Mineiro vs Avai preview
America Mineiro faces Avai with a 30% chance of winning compared to Avai's 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, which could reflect Avai's recent form of W-L-L-D-W-W, while America Mineiro has a mixed recent record of W-W-W-W-L-L.
The model suggests a low probability for Over 2.5 goals at 24% and a 32% chance for both teams to score. America Mineiro's expected goals stand at 1.07, while Avai's is lower at 0.63. This could indicate a tight match, but if America Mineiro improves their scoring, the predictions may not hold.
America Mineiro vs Avai: model vs market
| Source | America Mineiro | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| Published | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Edge | +5% | +2% | -7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
America Mineiro vs Avai odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avai, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 3.60 | 3.86 | +0.26 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.47 | -0.07 |
| Avai | 1.92 | 1.85 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
America Mineiro and Avai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.71
- Attack rating (America Mineiro / Avai)
- 0.81 / 0.74
- Defence rating (America Mineiro / Avai)
- 0.88 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America Mineiro vs Avai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America Mineiro goals. Columns: Avai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America Mineiro vs Avai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America Mineiro vs Avai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 29% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Avai | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.11 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America Mineiro or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Avai) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win by 2+ | 6% | 17.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America Mineiro and Avai recent form
America Mineiro
4W 0D 2L
Avai
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America Mineiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-10
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 7 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-12
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: America Mineiro at home only, Avai away only.
America Mineiro vs Avai head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: America Mineiro 1 · draws 0 · Avai 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Avai | 2-1 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-02 | America Mineiro | 2-0 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-26 | Avai | 3-0 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- America Mineiro, previous: Ceara vs America Mineiro: odds and pick
- Avai, previous: Avai – São Bernardo, 2026-11-07