Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba preview
Atletico Goianiense hosts Cuiaba with a 50% chance to win compared to Cuiaba's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Atletico Goianiense has an expected goals figure of 1.22, while Cuiaba sits at only 0.61.
Atletico Goianiense's recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Cuiaba has lost 5 in a row and drawn once. This could affect the outcome if Cuiaba finds a way to improve their performance. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are low at 28%, and both teams to score stands at 33%.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Published | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Goianiense, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 1.46 | 1.34 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.38 | +0.38 |
| Cuiaba | 6.85 | 8.65 | +1.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Atletico Goianiense / Cuiaba)
- 1.11 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Atletico Goianiense / Cuiaba)
- 0.86 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Goianiense goals. Columns: Cuiaba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Cuiaba | 12% | 8.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.59 |
| No | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Goianiense or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cuiaba) | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba recent form
Atletico Goianiense
1W 3D 2L
Cuiaba
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Goianiense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-7
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.72
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Goianiense at home only, Cuiaba away only.
Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 1 · draws 2 · Cuiaba 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Cuiaba | 0-1 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-24 | Cuiaba | 2-2 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-22 | Atletico Goianiense | 1-1 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Atletico Goianiense, previous: Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense prediction
- Cuiaba, previous: Cuiaba vs Juventude prediction