CRB vs Ceara preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture, CRB has a 63% chance to win against Ceara, who has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% probability. CRB's expected goals are 2.11, while Ceara's are only 0.95, indicating a significant attacking advantage for CRB.
However, Ceara's recent form shows some improvement with 2 wins in their last 3 matches. Both teams to score has a 55% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 59%. If Ceara can find their scoring touch, they could challenge CRB's dominance, making the outcome less predictable.
CRB vs Ceara: model vs market
| Source | CRB | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CRB vs Ceara odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CRB, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB | 1.41 | 1.37 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.33 | -0.02 |
| Ceara | 6.94 | 7.10 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CRB and Ceara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (CRB / Ceara)
- 1.37 / 0.84
- Defence rating (CRB / Ceara)
- 1.06 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CRB vs Ceara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CRB goals. Columns: Ceara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CRB vs Ceara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CRB vs Ceara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CRB | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Ceara | 13% | 7.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CRB or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Ceara) | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | CRB win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CRB and Ceara recent form
CRB
3W 1D 2L
Ceara
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CRB at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-5
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Ceara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-9
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.39
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 11 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CRB at home only, Ceara away only.
CRB vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: CRB 1 · draws 0 · Ceara 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Ceara | 0-1 | CRB | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- CRB, previous: Nautico Recife vs CRB: odds and pick
- Ceara, previous: Ceara vs America Mineiro: odds and pick