Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR preview
Ponte Preta faces Operario-PR with a 1X2 probability of 18% for Ponte Preta, 24% for a draw, and 58% for Operario-PR. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, occurring at 12%. Ponte Preta's recent form shows 6 matches with 5 losses and 1 draw, while Operario-PR has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches.
The expected goals indicate Ponte Preta at 0.85 and Operario-PR at 1.82. While our model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, Ponte Preta's struggle to find the net could lead to a lower-scoring match than anticipated.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR: model vs market
| Source | Ponte Preta | Draw | Operario-PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| Published | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Operario-PR, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 5.04 | 4.94 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.92 | +0.04 |
| Operario-PR | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Ponte Preta / Operario-PR)
- 0.53 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Ponte Preta / Operario-PR)
- 1.72 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ponte Preta goals. Columns: Operario-PR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 18% | 5.54 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Operario-PR | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ponte Preta or draw) | 42% | 2.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Operario-PR) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Operario-PR win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ponte Preta and Operario-PR recent form
Ponte Preta
0W 2D 4L
Operario-PR
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ponte Preta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-10
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.72
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 3 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 19 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Operario-PR away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-8
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ponte Preta at home only, Operario-PR away only.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ponte Preta 0 · draws 0 · Operario-PR 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Operario-PR | 3-2 | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- São Bernardo vs Athletic Club 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Ponte Preta, previous: Goias v Ponte Preta analysis
- Operario-PR, previous: Operario-PR – Sport Recife, 2026-11-06