São Bernardo vs Athletic Club preview
São Bernardo has a 51% chance to win against Athletic Club, which stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. São Bernardo's expected goals are 2.08, while Athletic Club's are 1.17. The model also suggests a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score.
However, São Bernardo's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Athletic Club has only 1 win in the same period. The head-to-head record is even, with each team winning once in their last 2 encounters. This inconsistency in form could impact the outcome of the match.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | São Bernardo | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices São Bernardo below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on São Bernardo, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 1.95 | 1.90 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.49 | +0.17 |
| Athletic Club | 3.77 | 3.80 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
São Bernardo and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (São Bernardo / Athletic Club)
- 1.21 / 1.12
- Defence rating (São Bernardo / Athletic Club)
- 1.08 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: São Bernardo goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for São Bernardo vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Athletic Club | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (São Bernardo or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
São Bernardo and Athletic Club recent form
São Bernardo
2W 1D 3L
Athletic Club
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
São Bernardo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-7
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-6
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 11 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: São Bernardo at home only, Athletic Club away only.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: São Bernardo 1 · draws 0 · Athletic Club 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Athletic Club | 2-1 | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B |
| 2024-06-29 | Athletic Club | 1-4 | São Bernardo | Serie C |
Other Matchday 38 fixtures
- Londrina vs Nautico Recife 2026-11-11
- Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Sport Recife vs Goias 2026-11-14
- America Mineiro v Avai — match page 2026-11-14
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino 2026-11-14
- Atletico Goianiense v Cuiaba — match page 2026-11-14
- CRB vs Ceara — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Juventude v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- São Bernardo, previous: Avai – São Bernardo, 2026-11-07
- Athletic Club, previous: Athletic Club vs Atletico Goianiense prediction