Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 38

Londrina vs Nautico Recife

· Estadio do Cafe, Londrina· Referee Helena de Siqueira, Andreza

Alin prediction Londrina to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LondrinaDrawNautico Recife
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.06.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Londrina is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Londrina1.83 Draw3.85 Nautico Recife5.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.83: -2.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife preview

Londrina faces Nautico Recife with a 53% probability of winning, while Nautico Recife has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time according to our model. The expected goals for Londrina are 1.68, compared to Nautico Recife's 1.06.

Both teams to score stands at 54%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 52%. However, Londrina's recent form shows 3 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Nautico Recife has also struggled, with 4 losses in their last 6 games. These factors could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLondrinaDrawNautico Recife
Model51%26%23%
Market54%25%21%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.06.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Londrina vs Nautico Recife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Londrina, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.42Now 1.73 +0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Londrina1.421.73+0.31
Draw4.453.77-0.68
Nautico Recife6.634.42-2.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Londrina and Nautico Recife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Londrina
1.06Nautico Recife
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (Londrina / Nautico Recife)
0.94 / 0.72
Defence rating (Londrina / Nautico Recife)
1.50 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 5.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1 9.7% 12.6% 6.1% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.1% 9.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.1% 5.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Londrina goals. Columns: Nautico Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Londrina vs Nautico Recife

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Londrina53%1.88
Draw25%3.97
Nautico Recife22%4.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.94
Under 2.548%2.07
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Londrina or draw)78%1.27
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Nautico Recife)47%2.14
Handicap -1Londrina win by 2+28%3.55
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Londrina and Nautico Recife recent form

Londrina 1W 1D 4L
Nautico Recife 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Londrina at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-8
Win rate
28%
Goals for / match
1.39
Goals against / match
1.28
Clean sheets
8 of 18
  • They have won 8 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 37 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).

Nautico Recife away

Record (W-D-L)
3-7-8
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.11
Goals against / match
1.61
Clean sheets
3 of 18
  • They have won 12 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Londrina at home only, Nautico Recife away only.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Londrina 6 · draws 2 · Nautico Recife 2.

LondrinaDrawsNautico Recife
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-23Nautico Recife2-1LondrinaBrazil Serie B
2025-08-10Londrina0-2Nautico RecifeSerie C
2024-08-24Londrina3-2Nautico RecifeSerie C
2022-07-23Nautico Recife1-2LondrinaSerie B
2022-04-10Londrina2-0Nautico RecifeSerie B
2021-09-22Nautico Recife1-2LondrinaSerie B
2021-06-23Londrina0-0Nautico RecifeSerie B
2017-11-11Nautico Recife1-2LondrinaSerie B
2017-07-22Londrina0-0Nautico RecifeSerie B
2016-08-30Nautico Recife0-2LondrinaSerie B

Other Matchday 38 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Londrina to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Londrina
Our pick: Londrina to win 18+ Bet Now