America Mineiro vs Cuiaba preview
In the Brazil Serie B match between America Mineiro and Cuiaba, the 1X2 probabilities show Cuiaba at 45%, while America Mineiro sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Cuiaba's expected goals of 1.07 compared to America Mineiro's 0.60.
America Mineiro's recent form is concerning, with 6 matches resulting in 5 losses and only 1 win. In contrast, Cuiaba has a mixed record with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. While both teams to score stands at 31% and Over 2.5 goals at 24%, the recent struggles of America Mineiro could lead to a different outcome than expected.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba: model vs market
| Source | America Mineiro | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 37% | 42% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Published | 24% | 30% | 45% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cuiaba, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.30 | -0.05 |
| Cuiaba | 1.95 | 2.00 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
America Mineiro and Cuiaba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.61
- Attack rating (America Mineiro / Cuiaba)
- 0.58 / 0.91
- Defence rating (America Mineiro / Cuiaba)
- 1.13 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America Mineiro goals. Columns: Cuiaba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 24% | 4.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Cuiaba | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.32 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America Mineiro or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Cuiaba) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win by 2+ | 17% | 5.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America Mineiro and Cuiaba recent form
America Mineiro
1W 0D 5L
Cuiaba
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America Mineiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: America Mineiro at home only, Cuiaba away only.
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: America Mineiro 0 · draws 1 · Cuiaba 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Cuiaba | 1-0 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-11-16 | America Mineiro | 1-1 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-07-24 | Cuiaba | 3-1 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma 2026-10-24
- Avai vs Botafogo SP — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino — match page 2026-10-24
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
- Ceara vs Goias — team news & stats 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- America Mineiro, previous: America Mineiro – Operario-PR, 2026-10-17
- Cuiaba, previous: Londrina vs Cuiaba: odds and pick