Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino preview
Atletico Goianiense faces Novorizontino with 40% chances for a home win and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which has an 8% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.25 for Atletico Goianiense and 1.46 for Novorizontino, indicating a close match.
Both teams to score has a 56% chance, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. Recent form shows Atletico Goianiense with D-D-L-W-W-L and Novorizontino at D-W-W-W-D-L. A draw is also a possibility with a 28% probability. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Goianiense, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 2.13 | 2.47 | +0.34 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.25 | -0.07 |
| Novorizontino | 3.24 | 2.80 | -0.44 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Atletico Goianiense / Novorizontino)
- 1.18 / 1.76
- Defence rating (Atletico Goianiense / Novorizontino)
- 0.86 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Goianiense goals. Columns: Novorizontino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Novorizontino | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Goianiense or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Novorizontino) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win by 2+ | 14% | 7.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino recent form
Atletico Goianiense
2W 2D 2L
Novorizontino
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Goianiense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-4
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.76
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Goianiense at home only, Novorizontino away only.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 1 · draws 1 · Novorizontino 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Novorizontino | 3-0 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-08 | Novorizontino | 1-1 | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-04 | Atletico Goianiense | 1-0 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma 2026-10-24
- Avai vs Botafogo SP — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Atletico Goianiense, previous: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense: odds and pick
- Novorizontino, previous: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction