Juventude vs Nautico Recife preview
Juventude faces Nautico Recife with a 63% chance of winning, while Nautico Recife has only a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time in this matchup. Juventude's expected goals sit at 1.81, significantly higher than Nautico Recife's 0.71.
However, the prediction could be challenged if both teams manage to score, as our model indicates a 44% chance for "both teams to score." Additionally, the recent form shows Juventude with a mixed record of D-D-W-W-W-L, while Nautico Recife has struggled with D-L-L-D-W-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome of the match.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife: model vs market
| Source | Juventude | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Juventude vs Nautico Recife odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 1.57 | 1.50 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.05 | +0.20 |
| Nautico Recife | 5.46 | 6.10 | +0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventude and Nautico Recife expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Juventude / Nautico Recife)
- 1.24 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Juventude / Nautico Recife)
- 0.87 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventude goals. Columns: Nautico Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventude vs Nautico Recife
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventude | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Nautico Recife | 15% | 6.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventude or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Nautico Recife) | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juventude and Nautico Recife recent form
Juventude
3W 2D 1L
Nautico Recife
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventude at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-5-2
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 0.47
- Clean sheets
- 12 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Nautico Recife away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventude at home only, Nautico Recife away only.
Juventude vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Juventude 0 · draws 1 · Nautico Recife 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Nautico Recife | 0-0 | Juventude | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma 2026-10-24
- Avai vs Botafogo SP — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino — match page 2026-10-24
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Ceara vs Goias — team news & stats 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Juventude, previous: Ceara v Juventude analysis
- Nautico Recife, previous: Goias vs Nautico Recife prediction