São Bernardo vs Vila Nova preview
São Bernardo faces Vila Nova with 34% and 35% probabilities for a win, respectively. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at 12%. São Bernardo's expected goals stand at 1.01, while Vila Nova's is slightly higher at 1.13.
Recent form shows São Bernardo with L-D-L-W-D-W, and Vila Nova with D-W-D-W-W-W. Both teams to score is at 44%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 36%. A draw could change the outcome, as the probabilities are close, and previous head-to-head results show Vila Nova winning the last match against São Bernardo. The confidence grade for this match is C.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: model vs market
| Source | São Bernardo | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 32% | 37% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 36% |
| Published | 33% | 31% | 37% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vila Nova, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 2.51 | 2.80 | +0.29 |
| Draw | 2.99 | 3.05 | +0.06 |
| Vila Nova | 2.83 | 2.55 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
São Bernardo and Vila Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (São Bernardo / Vila Nova)
- 1.11 / 1.18
- Defence rating (São Bernardo / Vila Nova)
- 1.00 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: São Bernardo goals. Columns: Vila Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Vila Nova | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (São Bernardo or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Vila Nova) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 16% | 6.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
São Bernardo and Vila Nova recent form
São Bernardo
2W 2D 2L
Vila Nova
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
São Bernardo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Vila Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: São Bernardo at home only, Vila Nova away only.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: São Bernardo 0 · draws 0 · Vila Nova 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Vila Nova | 2-1 | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
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- Avai vs Botafogo SP — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino — match page 2026-10-24
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- São Bernardo, previous: São Bernardo v Criciuma analysis
- Vila Nova, previous: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction