Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC preview
In the match between Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC, the 1X2 probabilities show Fortaleza EC at 75%, while Ponte Preta sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring with a 16% probability. Ponte Preta's recent form includes four losses and one win, while Fortaleza EC has three wins and two draws in their last five matches.
While Fortaleza EC is favored, the model indicates a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance for both teams to score. Ponte Preta's expected goals are 0.51, significantly lower than Fortaleza EC's 2.16. If Ponte Preta can improve their scoring, the outcome could shift, but their current form raises concerns.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC: model vs market
| Source | Ponte Preta | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 18% | 75% |
| Market | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| Published | 8% | 17% | 76% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortaleza EC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 9.55 | 11.75 | +2.20 |
| Draw | 5.15 | 5.75 | +0.60 |
| Fortaleza EC | 1.27 | 1.22 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Ponte Preta / Fortaleza EC)
- 0.50 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Ponte Preta / Fortaleza EC)
- 1.85 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ponte Preta goals. Columns: Fortaleza EC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 8% | 13.23 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.00 | |
| Fortaleza EC | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.77 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ponte Preta or draw) | 24% | 4.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza EC) | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win by 2+ | 51% | 1.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC recent form
Ponte Preta
1W 1D 4L
Fortaleza EC
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ponte Preta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 3 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Fortaleza EC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-5
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ponte Preta at home only, Fortaleza EC away only.
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ponte Preta 0 · draws 0 · Fortaleza EC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Fortaleza EC | 2-0 | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Operario-PR vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma 2026-10-24
- Avai vs Botafogo SP — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atletico Goianiense v Novorizontino — match page 2026-10-24
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Ponte Preta, previous: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense: odds and pick
- Fortaleza EC, previous: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC prediction