Vila Nova vs Novorizontino preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture, Vila Nova faces Novorizontino with 1X2 probabilities showing Vila Nova at 38%, a draw at 35%, and Novorizontino at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 15%. Vila Nova has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.01 compared to Novorizontino's 0.81.
Vila Nova's recent form includes 4 wins and 2 draws, while Novorizontino has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 28%, and both teams to score is at 37%. A draw or a higher-scoring match could make the predictions less accurate. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: model vs market
| Source | Vila Nova | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vila Nova, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 2.67 | 2.68 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 3.06 | +0.04 |
| Novorizontino | 2.62 | 2.62 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vila Nova and Novorizontino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Vila Nova / Novorizontino)
- 1.13 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Vila Nova / Novorizontino)
- 0.58 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vila Nova goals. Columns: Novorizontino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Novorizontino | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vila Nova or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Novorizontino) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 14% | 6.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vila Nova and Novorizontino recent form
Vila Nova
4W 2D 0L
Novorizontino
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vila Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Novorizontino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vila Nova at home only, Novorizontino away only.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Vila Nova 2 · draws 3 · Novorizontino 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Novorizontino | 2-1 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-28 | Novorizontino | 1-1 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-30 | Vila Nova | 0-1 | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B |
| 2024-08-31 | Novorizontino | 2-0 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2024-05-14 | Vila Nova | 2-1 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 2023-07-30 | Novorizontino | 3-1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2023-04-15 | Vila Nova | 2-1 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 2022-07-30 | Novorizontino | 1-1 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
| 2022-04-12 | Vila Nova | 0-0 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page 2026-10-16
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Avai vs Athletic Club 2026-10-18
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Vila Nova, previous: Nautico Recife v Vila Nova analysis
- Novorizontino, previous: Novorizontino v Ponte Preta analysis