Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: model vs market
| Source | Nautico Recife | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Nautico Recife / Vila Nova)
- 1.14 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Nautico Recife / Vila Nova)
- 1.15 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nautico Recife goals. Columns: Vila Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 31% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Vila Nova | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nautico Recife or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Vila Nova) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nautico Recife and Vila Nova recent form
Nautico Recife
2W 2D 2L
Vila Nova
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nautico Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nautico Recife at home only, Vila Nova away only.
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Nautico Recife 0 · draws 0 · Vila Nova 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Vila Nova | 4-3 | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B |
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