Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova

· Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife· Referee Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Vila Nova to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nautico RecifeDrawVila Nova

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNautico RecifeDrawVila Nova
Model27%32%41%
Market35%30%35%
Published33%30%37%
Edge-2%+1%+2%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vila Nova, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 3.19Now 2.64 -0.55
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nautico Recife2.172.67+0.49
Draw3.173.11-0.06
Vila Nova3.192.64-0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nautico Recife and Vila Nova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Nautico Recife
1.19Vila Nova
Total expected goals
2.10
Attack rating (Nautico Recife / Vila Nova)
1.05 / 1.04
Defence rating (Nautico Recife / Vila Nova)
1.19 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 13.3% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 1 9.8% 14.6% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 2 5.0% 6.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 3 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Nautico Recife goals. Columns: Vila Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nautico Recife33%3.05
Draw30%3.28
Vila Nova37%2.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.86
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.33
No57%1.75
Double chance1X (Nautico Recife or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Vila Nova)67%1.49
Handicap -1Vila Nova win by 2+19%5.40
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nautico Recife and Vila Nova recent form

Nautico Recife 1W 2D 3L
Vila Nova 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nautico Recife at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-5
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vila Nova away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-7
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
0.81
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nautico Recife at home only, Vila Nova away only.

Expected lineups

Nautico Recife lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Muriel
  2. 23 Igor Fernandes
  3. 46 Gustavo Henrique
  4. 15 Léo Índio
  5. 2 Arnaldo
  6. 7 Vinícius
  7. 41 Samuel
  8. 8 Wenderson
  9. 9 Paulo Sérgio
  10. 10 Jean Carlos
  11. 19 Kaua Almeida da Costa

Bench: Auremir, Ryan, Victor Andrade, Gabriel Severino de Sousa, Luiz Cláudio, P. Núñez, Luiz Felipe, Wanderson, G. Guruceaga, Luiz Paulo, Derek, Reginaldo Lopes

Vila Nova lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Helton Leite
  2. 13 Willian Formiga
  3. 23 Jonathan Costa
  4. 4 Douglas Mendes
  5. 22 Hayner
  6. 15 Dudu
  7. 5 João Vieira
  8. 99 Janderson
  9. 10 Marquinhos Gabriel
  10. 17 Everton Galdino
  11. 49 Dellatorre

Bench: Tiago Pagnussat, Willian Maranhão, Lincoln, Ryan Lima, Anderson, Igor Cariús, Enzo, Nathan Camargo, Higor Meritão, Dalberson, Dodô, Emerson Urso

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Nautico Recife 5 · draws 0 · Vila Nova 5.

Nautico RecifeDrawsVila Nova
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-20Vila Nova4-3Nautico RecifeBrazil Serie B
2023-03-09Nautico Recife2-1Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil
2022-08-20Nautico Recife1-2Vila NovaSerie B
2022-05-06Vila Nova2-0Nautico RecifeSerie B
2021-09-11Vila Nova1-0Nautico RecifeSerie B
2021-06-15Nautico Recife2-0Vila NovaSerie B
2017-11-18Nautico Recife1-2Vila NovaSerie B
2017-08-01Vila Nova0-1Nautico RecifeSerie B
2016-08-27Vila Nova0-2Nautico RecifeSerie B
2016-05-18Nautico Recife3-2Vila NovaSerie B

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match