Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Operario-PR vs Goias

· Estadio Germano Kruger, Punta Grossa· Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Operario-PR to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Operario-PRDrawGoias

Operario-PR vs Goias: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOperario-PRDrawGoias
Model49%26%25%
Market41%29%30%
Published43%28%29%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.16.
  • The market prices Operario-PR below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Operario-PR vs Goias odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Operario-PR, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 2.06Now 2.27 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Operario-PR2.062.27+0.21
Draw3.103.19+0.08
Goias3.643.05-0.59

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Operario-PR and Goias expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Operario-PR
1.16Goias
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Operario-PR / Goias)
1.21 / 0.90
Defence rating (Operario-PR / Goias)
1.34 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Operario-PR vs Goias score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 1 8.5% 12.3% 6.5% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.6% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.7% 5.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Operario-PR goals. Columns: Goias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Operario-PR vs Goias goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Operario-PR vs Goias

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Operario-PR43%2.34
Draw28%3.53
Goias29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Operario-PR or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Goias)57%1.75
Handicap -1Operario-PR win by 2+27%3.67
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Operario-PR and Goias recent form

Operario-PR 2W 2D 2L
Goias 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Operario-PR at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.44
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Goias away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-7
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.44
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Operario-PR at home only, Goias away only.

Expected lineups

Operario-PR lineup · 4-3-1-2

  1. 33 Vagner
  2. 27 Gabriel Feliciano
  3. 16 Miranda
  4. 43 Joseph
  5. 26 Maguinho
  6. 88 Neto Paraíba
  7. 39 Matheus Trindade
  8. 8 J. Zuluaga
  9. 30 Pedro Vilhena
  10. 99 Caio Dantas
  11. 14 Hildeberto Pereira

Bench: Elias Martello Curzel, Mikael Doka, Klaus, Índio, Aylon, André, Vinícius Diniz, Charles, Renan Gustavo

Goias lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 23 Tadeu
  2. 6 Nicolas
  3. 14 Lucas Ribeiro
  4. 3 Luiz Felipe
  5. 54 Djalma Silva
  6. 10 Lucas Lima
  7. 35 Luquinhas
  8. 5 Filipe Machado
  9. 97 Lourenço
  10. 11 Felipe Clemente
  11. 18 Cadu

Bench: Thiago Rodrigues, Ramon Menezes, Juninho, Jean Carlos Alves Ferreira, Luis Fellipe, Wellington Rato, Gegê, Guilherme Baldória, Danilo Cunha, Halerrandrio, Brayann

Operario-PR vs Goias head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Operario-PR 2 · draws 1 · Goias 4.

Operario-PRDrawsGoias
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-21Goias0-3Operario-PRBrazil Serie B
2025-08-09Goias2-1Operario-PRBrazil Serie B
2025-04-12Operario-PR1-2GoiasBrazil Serie B
2024-10-29Goias3-0Operario-PRSerie B
2024-07-18Operario-PR2-0GoiasSerie B
2021-11-06Operario-PR1-1GoiasSerie B
2021-07-30Goias1-0Operario-PRSerie B

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match