Operario-PR vs Goias: model vs market
| Source | Operario-PR | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Operario-PR and Goias expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Operario-PR / Goias)
- 1.26 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Operario-PR / Goias)
- 1.30 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Operario-PR vs Goias score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Operario-PR goals. Columns: Goias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Operario-PR vs Goias goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Operario-PR vs Goias
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Operario-PR | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Goias | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Operario-PR or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Goias) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Operario-PR win by 2+ | 33% | 3.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Operario-PR and Goias recent form
Operario-PR
3W 2D 1L
Goias
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Operario-PR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Operario-PR at home only, Goias away only.
Operario-PR vs Goias head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Operario-PR 1 · draws 0 · Goias 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Goias | 0-3 | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-09 | Goias | 2-1 | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-12 | Operario-PR | 1-2 | Goias | Brazil Serie B |
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