Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Criciuma vs America Mineiro

· Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma· Referee Paulo Schleich Vollkopf

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Criciuma to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CriciumaDrawAmerica Mineiro

Criciuma vs America Mineiro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCriciumaDrawAmerica Mineiro
Model58%29%13%
Market70%20%10%
Published67%22%11%
Edge-3%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.57.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Criciuma vs America Mineiro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Criciuma, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.40Now 1.31 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Criciuma1.401.31-0.09
Draw4.154.55+0.40
America Mineiro7.509.38+1.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Criciuma and America Mineiro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45Criciuma
0.57America Mineiro
Total expected goals
2.02
Attack rating (Criciuma / America Mineiro)
0.85 / 0.59
Defence rating (Criciuma / America Mineiro)
1.00 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Criciuma vs America Mineiro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.3% 6.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 18.1% 12.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.0% 8.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3 6.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 3.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Criciuma goals. Columns: America Mineiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Criciuma vs America Mineiro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
34%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Criciuma vs America Mineiro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Criciuma67%1.49
Draw22%4.47
America Mineiro11%9.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.03
Under 2.567%1.49
Both teams to scoreYes34%2.90
No66%1.53
Double chance1X (Criciuma or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or America Mineiro)33%3.02
Handicap -1Criciuma win by 2+30%3.28
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Criciuma and America Mineiro recent form

Criciuma 2W 0D 4L
America Mineiro 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Criciuma at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-3
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
0.62
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

America Mineiro away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-13
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.56
Goals against / match
1.94
Clean sheets
1 of 16
  • They have won 4 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Criciuma at home only, America Mineiro away only.

Expected lineups

Criciuma lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 32 Airton
  2. 4 Luciano Castán
  3. 97 Willean Lepo
  4. 37 César Martins
  5. 22 Marcelo Hermes
  6. 8 Guilherme Lobo
  7. 14 Ronald
  8. 13 Waguininho
  9. 7 Fellipe Mateus
  10. 9 Nicolas
  11. 10 Jhonata Robert

Bench: Eduardo, Marcinho, Romarinho, Hiago Accinelli da Roza, Yuri, Bruno Alves, Jean Irmer, Ruan, Thiaguinho, Pedro, Diego Gonçalves, R. Otero

America Mineiro lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 91 Bruno Brígido
  2. 25 T. Ostchega
  3. 3 L. Sosa
  4. 45 Ricardo Silva
  5. 4 Rafael Barcelos
  6. 93 J. Jiménez
  7. 88 Barreto
  8. 30 L. Montes
  9. 77 M. Segovia
  10. 20 Paulo Victor
  11. 9 Willian

Bench: F. Elizari, Guilherme Parede, Felipe Amaral, William, Filipe, Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio, Marcelo Macola

Criciuma vs America Mineiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Criciuma 2 · draws 5 · America Mineiro 3.

CriciumaDrawsAmerica Mineiro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-23America Mineiro0-1CriciumaBrazil Serie B
2025-10-12Criciuma2-1America MineiroBrazil Serie B
2025-06-21America Mineiro1-1CriciumaBrazil Serie B
2021-06-10Criciuma2-2America MineiroCopa Do Brasil
2021-06-03America Mineiro0-0CriciumaCopa Do Brasil
2019-09-11America Mineiro2-1CriciumaSerie B
2019-05-11Criciuma0-0America MineiroSerie B
2017-08-23America Mineiro0-0CriciumaSerie B
2017-05-26Criciuma1-3America MineiroSerie B
2015-09-26America Mineiro2-1CriciumaSerie B

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match