Criciuma vs America Mineiro: model vs market
| Source | Criciuma | Draw | America Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 25% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Criciuma and America Mineiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Criciuma / America Mineiro)
- 0.95 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Criciuma / America Mineiro)
- 1.02 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Criciuma goals. Columns: America Mineiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Criciuma vs America Mineiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| America Mineiro | 12% | 8.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.55 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Criciuma or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or America Mineiro) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Criciuma win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Criciuma and America Mineiro recent form
Criciuma
3W 0D 3L
America Mineiro
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Criciuma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
America Mineiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-13
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Criciuma at home only, America Mineiro away only.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Criciuma 2 · draws 1 · America Mineiro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | America Mineiro | 0-1 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-10-12 | Criciuma | 2-1 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-06-21 | America Mineiro | 1-1 | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B |
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