Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 34

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR

· Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta· Referee Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho

Alin prediction Operario-PR to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
America MineiroDrawOperario-PR
Best market odds
America Mineiro3.25 Draw3.74 Operario-PR2.25

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR preview

In the Brazil Serie B fixture between America Mineiro and Operario-PR, the 1X2 probabilities show America Mineiro at 25%, a draw at 28%, and Operario-PR at 47%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Operario-PR's expected goals of 1.51 compared to America Mineiro's 1.04.

Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, America Mineiro's recent form, with five consecutive losses, could impact their performance negatively. Operario-PR, on the other hand, has shown some resilience with two wins in their last three matches.

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAmerica MineiroDrawOperario-PR
Model26%31%43%
Market30%27%43%
Published29%28%43%
Edge-4%+4%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Operario-PR, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 2.10Now 2.16 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
America Mineiro3.203.05-0.15
Draw3.443.41-0.03
Operario-PR2.102.16+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

America Mineiro and Operario-PR expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96America Mineiro
1.31Operario-PR
Total expected goals
2.28
Attack rating (America Mineiro / Operario-PR)
0.54 / 1.08
Defence rating (America Mineiro / Operario-PR)
1.26 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.6% 12.2% 8.8% 3.9% 1.7% 1 8.6% 14.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 4.8% 6.3% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 3 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: America Mineiro goals. Columns: Operario-PR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for America Mineiro vs Operario-PR

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2America Mineiro29%3.42
Draw28%3.58
Operario-PR43%2.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.52
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.15
No54%1.87
Double chance1X (America Mineiro or draw)57%1.75
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Operario-PR)71%1.41
Handicap -1Operario-PR win by 2+21%4.85
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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America Mineiro and Operario-PR recent form

America Mineiro 0W 0D 6L
Operario-PR 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

America Mineiro at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-10
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Operario-PR away

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-6
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.44
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: America Mineiro at home only, Operario-PR away only.

Expected lineups

America Mineiro lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 91 Bruno Brígido
  2. 25 T. Ostchega
  3. 3 L. Sosa
  4. 45 Ricardo Silva
  5. 4 Rafael Barcelos
  6. 93 J. Jiménez
  7. 88 Barreto
  8. 7 Guilherme Parede
  9. 77 M. Segovia
  10. 20 Paulo Victor
  11. 9 Willian

Bench: Emerson Santos, F. Elizari, Felipe Amaral, William, Manoel, L. Montes, Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio, Marcelo Macola

Operario-PR lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Elias Martello Curzel
  2. 27 Gabriel Feliciano
  3. 43 Joseph
  4. 22 J. Cuenú
  5. 2 Mikael Doka
  6. 5 Índio
  7. 8 J. Zuluaga
  8. 30 Pedro Vilhena
  9. 20 Vinícius Diniz
  10. 14 Hildeberto Pereira
  11. 99 Caio Dantas

Bench: Klaus, Moraes, Aylon, Miranda, André, Joao Gabriel, Vagner, Neto Paraíba

America Mineiro vs Operario-PR head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: America Mineiro 3 · draws 3 · Operario-PR 4.

America MineiroDrawsOperario-PR
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-27Operario-PR1-0America MineiroBrazil Serie B
2025-09-07America Mineiro1-1Operario-PRBrazil Serie B
2025-05-04Operario-PR1-0America MineiroBrazil Serie B
2024-10-24Operario-PR1-0America MineiroSerie B
2024-07-06America Mineiro2-0Operario-PRSerie B
2020-11-21Operario-PR0-1America MineiroSerie B
2020-08-14America Mineiro1-1Operario-PRSerie B
2020-03-05Operario-PR0-2America MineiroCopa Do Brasil
2019-08-31America Mineiro0-0Operario-PRSerie B
2019-04-26Operario-PR1-0America MineiroSerie B

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Operario-PR to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Operario-PR
Our pick: Operario-PR to win 18+ Bet Now