Avai vs Athletic Club preview
In the upcoming match between Avai and Athletic Club, the 1X2 probabilities show Avai at 42%, while Athletic Club sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Avai's expected goals are 1.46 compared to Athletic Club's 1.29, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, recent form may complicate predictions. Avai has a mixed record of W-W-L-L-L-D, while Athletic Club has struggled with D-L-L-D-D-W. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 52%. These factors suggest that while Avai may be favored, Athletic Club could surprise based on their recent performances.
Avai vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Avai | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | -3% | -3% | +6% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Avai vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avai, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 2.17 | 2.15 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.04 | -0.06 |
| Athletic Club | 3.33 | 3.50 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avai and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Avai / Athletic Club)
- 0.84 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Avai / Athletic Club)
- 1.05 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avai vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avai goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avai vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avai vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Athletic Club | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avai or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avai and Athletic Club recent form
Avai
2W 1D 3L
Athletic Club
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Avai at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Avai vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Avai 1 · draws 0 · Athletic Club 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-11-01 | Avai | 2-1 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-07-14 | Athletic Club | 4-0 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page 2026-10-16
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-16
- Ceara vs Juventude 2026-10-17
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page 2026-10-18
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Goias vs Nautico Recife 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Avai, previous: Cuiaba vs Avai: odds and pick
- Athletic Club, previous: Athletic Club vs Londrina: odds and pick
- Athletic Club, next: Operario-PR vs Athletic Club: odds and pick