Cuiaba vs Avai: model vs market
| Source | Cuiaba | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 24% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cuiaba and Avai expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Cuiaba / Avai)
- 1.20 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Cuiaba / Avai)
- 0.91 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cuiaba vs Avai score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cuiaba goals. Columns: Avai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cuiaba vs Avai goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cuiaba vs Avai
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Avai | 12% | 8.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cuiaba or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Avai) | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cuiaba and Avai recent form
Cuiaba
3W 1D 2L
Avai
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cuiaba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-2
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Avai away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-11
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cuiaba at home only, Avai away only.
Cuiaba vs Avai head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cuiaba 0 · draws 1 · Avai 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Avai | 1-0 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-08-10 | Avai | 2-0 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-04-11 | Cuiaba | 2-2 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Criciuma v America Mineiro — match page 2026-10-12
- Fortaleza EC vs CRB 2026-10-12
- Botafogo SP v Ceara — match page 2026-10-13
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