Updated

Brazil Serie B · Matchday 33

Cuiaba vs Avai

· Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba· Referee Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Cuiaba to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CuiabaDrawAvai

Cuiaba vs Avai: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCuiabaDrawAvai
Model60%27%13%
Market56%26%18%
Published57%26%16%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cuiaba vs Avai odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cuiaba, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 1.63Now 1.65 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cuiaba1.631.65+0.02
Draw3.523.51-0.01
Avai5.305.29-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cuiaba and Avai expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Cuiaba
0.64Avai
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (Cuiaba / Avai)
1.07 / 0.83
Defence rating (Cuiaba / Avai)
0.81 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cuiaba vs Avai score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 5.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1 15.7% 11.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2 13.6% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 7.4% 4.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Cuiaba goals. Columns: Avai goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cuiaba vs Avai goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cuiaba vs Avai

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cuiaba57%1.75
Draw26%3.79
Avai16%6.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.53
Under 2.560%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.64
Double chance1X (Cuiaba or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Avai)43%2.33
Handicap -1Cuiaba win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cuiaba and Avai recent form

Cuiaba 3W 2D 1L
Avai 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cuiaba at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-7-2
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Avai away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-11
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
0.94
Goals against / match
1.69
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cuiaba at home only, Avai away only.

Expected lineups

Cuiaba lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 João Carlos
  2. 4 Vitor Mendes
  3. 5 Calebe
  4. 13 João Basso
  5. 36 Lorenzo
  6. 20 David Miguel
  7. 30 Raul
  8. 2 Igor Inocêncio
  9. 77 Jean Dias
  10. 41 Kauan
  11. 90 Fábio Gomes

Bench: Eliel, Busatto, Eric, João Vitor, Rodrigo Farofa, Vinicius Peixoto, Weverson, Wesley Dias, Luisão, Pedro Henrique, Luiz Otávio

Avai lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 94 Bruno Ferreira
  2. 36 DG
  3. 38 Jefferson Maciel
  4. 3 Allyson
  5. 22 João Vitor Cardoso de Souza
  6. 8 Luiz Henrique
  7. 77 Zé Ricardo
  8. 10 Jean Lucas
  9. 14 Daniel Penha
  10. 95 Wenderson

Bench: Igor Bohn, Wallison, Del Piage, Léo Chú, Léo Gamalho, Hyan, Paulo Vitor, Pedrão, Quaresma, Gaspar

Cuiaba vs Avai head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Cuiaba 4 · draws 1 · Avai 2.

CuiabaDrawsAvai
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-21Avai1-0CuiabaBrazil Serie B
2025-08-10Avai2-0CuiabaBrazil Serie B
2025-04-11Cuiaba2-2AvaiBrazil Serie B
2022-10-27Cuiaba1-0AvaiSerie A
2022-07-03Avai1-2CuiabaSerie A
2020-11-28Cuiaba2-1AvaiSerie B
2020-08-22Avai0-2CuiabaSerie B

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match