CS Herediano vs San Carlos: model vs market
| Source | CS Herediano | Draw | San Carlos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 34% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | -29% | +8% | +21% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
CS Herediano vs San Carlos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CS Herediano, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS Herediano | 1.72 | 1.68 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.44 | -0.07 |
| San Carlos | 4.57 | 4.56 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CS Herediano and San Carlos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.88
- Attack rating (CS Herediano / San Carlos)
- 0.70 / 0.91
- Defence rating (CS Herediano / San Carlos)
- 1.08 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CS Herediano vs San Carlos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CS Herediano goals. Columns: San Carlos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CS Herediano vs San Carlos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CS Herediano vs San Carlos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CS Herediano | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| San Carlos | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CS Herediano or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or San Carlos) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | CS Herediano win by 2+ | 8% | 12.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CS Herediano and San Carlos recent form
CS Herediano
1W 0D 5L
San Carlos
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CS Herediano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
San Carlos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CS Herediano at home only, San Carlos away only.
CS Herediano vs San Carlos head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: CS Herediano 2 · draws 1 · San Carlos 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | San Carlos | 1-0 | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-19 | CS Herediano | 1-0 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-02-23 | San Carlos | 1-0 | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-11-30 | CS Herediano | 3-1 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-25 | San Carlos | 2-2 | CS Herediano | Costa Rica Primera División |