Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa: model vs market
| Source | Escorpiones Belén | Draw | Deportivo Saprissa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Escorpiones Belén and Deportivo Saprissa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Escorpiones Belén / Deportivo Saprissa)
- 0.55 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Escorpiones Belén / Deportivo Saprissa)
- 1.31 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Escorpiones Belén goals. Columns: Deportivo Saprissa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Escorpiones Belén | 10% | 10.24 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Escorpiones Belén or draw) | 30% | 3.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Saprissa) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Saprissa win by 2+ | 47% | 2.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Escorpiones Belén and Deportivo Saprissa recent form
Escorpiones Belén
0W 0D 6L
Deportivo Saprissa
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Escorpiones Belén at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Saprissa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Escorpiones Belén at home only, Deportivo Saprissa away only.
Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Escorpiones Belén 0 · draws 0 · Deportivo Saprissa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2-1 | Escorpiones Belén | Costa Rica Primera División |
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