Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines preview
Sporting San Jose faces CS Cartagines with a 41% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
Sporting San Jose has shown strong recent form with four wins in their last six matches, while CS Cartagines has a mixed record, winning four of their last six. However, CS Cartagines has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning four out of the last five matches against Sporting San Jose. This historical advantage could influence the outcome, making the prediction less certain.
Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines: model vs market
| Source | Sporting San Jose | Draw | CS Cartagines |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting San Jose, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting San Jose | 2.22 | 2.20 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.10 | -0.02 |
| CS Cartagines | 3.04 | 3.03 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting San Jose and CS Cartagines expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Sporting San Jose / CS Cartagines)
- 1.22 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Sporting San Jose / CS Cartagines)
- 0.83 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting San Jose goals. Columns: CS Cartagines goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting San Jose | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| CS Cartagines | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting San Jose or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or CS Cartagines) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting San Jose win by 2+ | 20% | 4.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sporting San Jose and CS Cartagines recent form
Sporting San Jose
5W 0D 1L
CS Cartagines
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting San Jose at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
CS Cartagines away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting San Jose at home only, CS Cartagines away only.
Sporting San Jose vs CS Cartagines head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sporting San Jose 1 · draws 0 · CS Cartagines 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | CS Cartagines | 2-1 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-03 | Sporting San Jose | 2-3 | CS Cartagines | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-01-30 | CS Cartagines | 0-2 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-09-21 | CS Cartagines | 1-0 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-03 | Sporting San Jose | 0-1 | CS Cartagines | Costa Rica Primera División |