Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense: model vs market
| Source | Puntarenas FC | Draw | LD Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.23.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LD Alajuelense, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas FC | 3.80 | 3.81 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.35 | -0.04 |
| LD Alajuelense | 1.86 | 1.83 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puntarenas FC and LD Alajuelense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Puntarenas FC / LD Alajuelense)
- 0.90 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Puntarenas FC / LD Alajuelense)
- 1.17 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puntarenas FC goals. Columns: LD Alajuelense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puntarenas FC | 24% | 4.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| LD Alajuelense | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puntarenas FC or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or LD Alajuelense) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puntarenas FC and LD Alajuelense recent form
Puntarenas FC
3W 1D 2L
LD Alajuelense
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puntarenas FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LD Alajuelense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puntarenas FC at home only, LD Alajuelense away only.
Puntarenas FC vs LD Alajuelense head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Puntarenas FC 1 · draws 2 · LD Alajuelense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | LD Alajuelense | 2-1 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-24 | LD Alajuelense | 5-2 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-03-01 | Puntarenas FC | 2-0 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-09-27 | LD Alajuelense | 2-2 | Puntarenas FC | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-08-17 | Puntarenas FC | 0-0 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
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- CS Herediano v San Carlos — match page 2026-10-11
- Escorpiones Belén v Deportivo Saprissa — match page 2026-10-11