LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose preview
In the fixture between LD Alajuelense and Sporting San Jose, the 1X2 probabilities show LD Alajuelense at 51% and Sporting San Jose at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams are in decent form, but LD Alajuelense's recent record includes one loss, which could impact their performance.
The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. LD Alajuelense has expected goals of 2.12, while Sporting San Jose has 1.49. If LD Alajuelense underperforms or Sporting San Jose exceeds expectations, the predicted outcomes could change.
LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose: model vs market
| Source | LD Alajuelense | Draw | Sporting San Jose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.33.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
LD Alajuelense and Sporting San Jose expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (LD Alajuelense / Sporting San Jose)
- 1.09 / 1.43
- Defence rating (LD Alajuelense / Sporting San Jose)
- 0.82 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: LD Alajuelense goals. Columns: Sporting San Jose goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Sporting San Jose | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (LD Alajuelense or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting San Jose) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win by 2+ | 27% | 3.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
LD Alajuelense and Sporting San Jose recent form
LD Alajuelense
3W 3D 0L
Sporting San Jose
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
LD Alajuelense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
Sporting San Jose away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: LD Alajuelense at home only, Sporting San Jose away only.
LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: LD Alajuelense 3 · draws 1 · Sporting San Jose 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sporting San Jose | 1-1 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-12 | Sporting San Jose | 0-2 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-02-16 | LD Alajuelense | 1-2 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-11-23 | LD Alajuelense | 2-0 | Sporting San Jose | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-07-28 | Sporting San Jose | 1-2 | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
- LD Alajuelense, previous: Escorpiones Belén v LD Alajuelense analysis
- Sporting San Jose, previous: Sporting San Jose – Perez Zeledon, 2026-11-04