San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon preview
In the fixture between San Carlos and Perez Zeledon, the model gives San Carlos a 60% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. San Carlos has shown better recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Perez Zeledon has struggled, recording 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games.
The model predicts 46% for both Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. San Carlos has expected goals of 1.75, while Perez Zeledon has just 0.78. If Perez Zeledon can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon: model vs market
| Source | San Carlos | Draw | Perez Zeledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
San Carlos and Perez Zeledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (San Carlos / Perez Zeledon)
- 0.97 / 0.67
- Defence rating (San Carlos / Perez Zeledon)
- 1.04 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Carlos goals. Columns: Perez Zeledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Carlos | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Perez Zeledon | 15% | 6.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Carlos or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Perez Zeledon) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Carlos win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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San Carlos and Perez Zeledon recent form
San Carlos
3W 1D 2L
Perez Zeledon
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Carlos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Perez Zeledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Carlos at home only, Perez Zeledon away only.
San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Carlos 3 · draws 3 · Perez Zeledon 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Perez Zeledon | 0-2 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-04-25 | San Carlos | 1-1 | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2026-01-13 | Perez Zeledon | 3-1 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-10-19 | Perez Zeledon | 1-3 | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-09-02 | San Carlos | 0-1 | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División |
| 2025-04-05 | San Carlos | 0-2 | Perez Zeledon | Primera División |
| 2025-02-08 | Perez Zeledon | 1-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2024-10-21 | San Carlos | 1-1 | Perez Zeledon | Primera División |
| 2024-08-04 | Perez Zeledon | 0-0 | San Carlos | Primera División |
| 2024-04-07 | San Carlos | 3-1 | Perez Zeledon | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
- San Carlos, previous: Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos prediction
- Perez Zeledon, previous: Sporting San Jose – Perez Zeledon, 2026-11-04