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Europe · 2026/27 season

Spain football predictions

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover in Spain — 3 competitions, 42 clubs, 190 fixtures predicted so far this season. Built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

Competitions 3 covered in Spain
Teams 42 in the 2026/27 season
Matches played 157 of 852 scheduled this season
Upcoming fixtures 60 in our publication window

Next fixtures in Spain

1 fixture on 9 October 2026 — every row opens the full prediction

Fixtures in Spain with our pick, edge and best market odds
MatchLeaguePickEdgeModelMarketConf.Best odds
Malaga vs EspanyolLa LigaA La Liga MalagaOur prob 36%Best odds 2.82 +7% 41% 34% A 2.82

Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.

Spain — country trends

How matches actually ended in the latest season of each competition across Spain’s covered competitions: 294 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.

Home wins 37% 109 of 294 matches -6 pts vs latest season of each competition (974)
Away wins 45% 131 of 294 matches +11 pts vs latest season of each competition (974)
Over 2.5 goals 56% 165 of 294 matches +5 pts vs latest season of each competition (974)
Both teams scored 52% 154 of 294 matches -2 pts vs latest season of each competition (974)

Change is in percentage points against the latest season of each competition season (974 played matches).

Competitions in Spain

3 competitions covered — squad size, matches played this season and fixtures inside our publication window, with how their matches ended.

All competitions

Played / scheduled count this season’s matches; Upcoming counts the fixtures currently inside our publication window. Home wins, Over 2.5 and BTTS are shares of each competition’s played matches in its latest season with results.

Top teams in Spain by model rating

The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.

La Liga
#1
Net rating
+1.80
Attack
3.00
Defence
1.19
Form NextGetafe (H) · 10 Oct
Segunda División
#2
Net rating
+0.90
Attack
1.98
Defence
1.08
Form NextReal Oviedo (A) · 12 Oct
Segunda División
#3
Net rating
+0.85
Attack
1.68
Defence
0.83
Form NextFC Andorra (A) · 11 Oct
Segunda División
#6
Net rating
+0.51
Attack
1.46
Defence
0.94
Form NextLeganes (H) · 11 Oct

Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.

Recent results in Spain

What happened next to what we predicted