Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg preview
Aarhus Fremad faces Esbjerg with 35% chances of winning compared to Esbjerg's 38%, indicating a tight contest. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.43 for Aarhus Fremad and 1.48 for Esbjerg.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, while Over 2.5 goals is projected at 56%. Recent form shows Aarhus Fremad with L-L-D-D-W-D, while Esbjerg has L-W-D-L-L-W. The head-to-head record shows Aarhus Fremad has not won in the last 2 matches against Esbjerg, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus Fremad | Draw | Esbjerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aarhus Fremad and Esbjerg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Aarhus Fremad / Esbjerg)
- 0.86 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Aarhus Fremad / Esbjerg)
- 0.82 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus Fremad goals. Columns: Esbjerg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus Fremad | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Esbjerg | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus Fremad or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Esbjerg) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Esbjerg win by 2+ | 19% | 5.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Aarhus Fremad and Esbjerg recent form
Aarhus Fremad
1W 3D 2L
Esbjerg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aarhus Fremad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Esbjerg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus Fremad at home only, Esbjerg away only.
Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Aarhus Fremad 0 · draws 1 · Esbjerg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Aarhus Fremad | 0-1 | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-09-28 | Esbjerg | 1-1 | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- HB Koge v AB Copenhagen — match page 2026-10-16
- Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Aarhus Fremad, previous: AB Copenhagen – Aarhus Fremad, 2026-10-09
- Esbjerg, previous: Esbjerg vs Aalborg: odds and pick