HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen preview
In the fixture between HB Koge and AB Copenhagen, the 1X2 probabilities show AB Copenhagen at 50%, while HB Koge sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 57%, and there is a 55% probability for Over 2.5 goals.
HB Koge's expected goals are 1.14, compared to AB Copenhagen's 1.73. Recent form indicates HB Koge has a record of W-D-D-D-D-L, while AB Copenhagen has W-W-W-L-L-L. This form could impact the outcome, as AB Copenhagen may struggle to maintain their recent winning streak.
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen: model vs market
| Source | HB Koge | Draw | AB Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
HB Koge and AB Copenhagen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (HB Koge / AB Copenhagen)
- 1.01 / 1.21
- Defence rating (HB Koge / AB Copenhagen)
- 1.08 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HB Koge goals. Columns: AB Copenhagen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HB Koge | 24% | 4.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| AB Copenhagen | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HB Koge or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or AB Copenhagen) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | AB Copenhagen win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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HB Koge and AB Copenhagen recent form
HB Koge
1W 4D 1L
AB Copenhagen
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HB Koge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
AB Copenhagen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HB Koge at home only, AB Copenhagen away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF 2026-10-16
- Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- HB Koge, previous: Vendsyssel FF v HB Koge analysis
- AB Copenhagen, previous: AB Copenhagen – Aarhus Fremad, 2026-10-09