Updated

Denmark 1. Division · Matchday 11

Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF

· Autocentralen Park, Kolding

Alin prediction Kolding IF to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kolding IFDrawVendsyssel FF

Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF preview

In the fixture between Kolding IF and Vendsyssel FF, the 1X2 probabilities show Kolding IF at 52%, while Vendsyssel FF sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Kolding IF has an expected goals figure of 1.84, compared to Vendsyssel FF's 1.17.

Both teams to score is at 59%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 58%. However, the recent form for Kolding IF is D-D-L-L-W-W, while Vendsyssel FF has D-L-D-L-W-W. This inconsistency in form could impact the outcome of the match, making it less predictable than the numbers suggest.

Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKolding IFDrawVendsyssel FF
Model52%25%23%
Market———
Published52%25%23%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.17.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kolding IF and Vendsyssel FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Kolding IF
1.17Vendsyssel FF
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Kolding IF / Vendsyssel FF)
1.13 / 0.96
Defence rating (Kolding IF / Vendsyssel FF)
0.92 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 4.7% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1 8.0% 11.7% 6.2% 2.4% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 5.1% 6.0% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 3.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Kolding IF goals. Columns: Vendsyssel FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kolding IF52%1.93
Draw25%4.01
Vendsyssel FF23%4.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.45
Double chance1X (Kolding IF or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Vendsyssel FF)48%2.08
Handicap -1Kolding IF win by 2+30%3.34
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Kolding IF and Vendsyssel FF recent form

Kolding IF 2W 2D 2L
Vendsyssel FF 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kolding IF at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Vendsyssel FF away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kolding IF at home only, Vendsyssel FF away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Kolding IF to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Kolding IF