Esbjerg vs Aalborg preview
Esbjerg faces Aalborg in the Denmark 1. Division, with both teams having a 37% chance to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 6% probability. The match is expected to see Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 67%.
Esbjerg's recent form shows they have won two out of their last six matches, while Aalborg has drawn three of their last six. The head-to-head record favors Esbjerg, with one win and one draw in their last two encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that while the numbers suggest a competitive match, unexpected outcomes could still arise.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg: model vs market
| Source | Esbjerg | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +19% | -3% | -16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aalborg, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg | 2.81 | 2.81 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| Aalborg | 2.23 | 2.22 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Esbjerg and Aalborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Esbjerg / Aalborg)
- 1.37 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Esbjerg / Aalborg)
- 1.13 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Esbjerg goals. Columns: Aalborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Esbjerg vs Aalborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esbjerg | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Aalborg | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Esbjerg or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Aalborg) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win by 2+ | 12% | 8.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Esbjerg and Aalborg recent form
Esbjerg
2W 1D 3L
Aalborg
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Esbjerg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Aalborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Esbjerg at home only, Aalborg away only.
Esbjerg vs Aalborg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Esbjerg 1 · draws 1 · Aalborg 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Aalborg | 1-1 | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-08-19 | Esbjerg | 1-0 | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Vejle vs Hvidovre — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad 2026-10-09
- Hillerød v FC Fredericia — match page 2026-10-10
- Hobro vs Kolding IF — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge 2026-10-11