Hillerød vs FC Fredericia preview
In the upcoming match between Hillerød and FC Fredericia, the key number is the 53% probability for FC Fredericia to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Hillerød has an expected goals figure of 1.52, while FC Fredericia sits at 1.31.
Both teams to score stands at 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. Hillerød's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while FC Fredericia has only one win in their last six. This could affect the match outcome and the expected goals.
Hillerød vs FC Fredericia: model vs market
| Source | Hillerød | Draw | FC Fredericia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Published | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Edge | +22% | +6% | -28% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hillerød vs FC Fredericia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Fredericia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerød | 4.97 | 4.96 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.38 | 4.28 | -0.10 |
| FC Fredericia | 1.53 | 1.53 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hillerød and FC Fredericia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Hillerød / FC Fredericia)
- 1.34 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Hillerød / FC Fredericia)
- 0.91 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hillerød vs FC Fredericia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hillerød goals. Columns: FC Fredericia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hillerød vs FC Fredericia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hillerød vs FC Fredericia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 24% | 4.15 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| FC Fredericia | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hillerød or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Fredericia) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Fredericia win by 2+ | 14% | 6.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hillerød and FC Fredericia recent form
Hillerød
3W 2D 1L
FC Fredericia
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hillerød at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Fredericia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hillerød at home only, FC Fredericia away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Hobro vs Kolding IF — team news & stats 2026-10-10
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