Vanløse vs Nykobing FC Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Vanløse vs Nykobing FC preview

In the DBU Pokalen fixture, Vanløse faces Nykobing FC with a 60% probability for an away win, compared to Vanløse's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.93 for Vanløse and 3.02 for Nykobing FC.

Both teams show strong potential for scoring, with an 87% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 82% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Vanløse's recent form of W-W-W-L-W could challenge Nykobing FC, who have drawn twice and won once in their last four matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Vanløse vs Nykobing FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vanløse	Draw	Nykobing FC
Model	23%	17%	60%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	17%	60%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.02 vs 1.93.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vanløse and Nykobing FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Vanløse

3.02Nykobing FC

Total expected goals: 4.95
Attack rating (Vanløse / Nykobing FC): 1.31 / 1.31
Defence rating (Vanløse / Nykobing FC): 0.79 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vanløse vs Nykobing FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.1% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 5.2% 1 1.0% 4.6% 6.2% 6.3% 10.0% 2 1.3% 4.0% 6.0% 6.1% 9.6% 3 0.9% 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 6.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 4.7%

Rows: Vanløse goals. Columns: Nykobing FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vanløse vs Nykobing FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%

Over 1.5 96%

Over 2.5 87%

Over 3.5 73%

Both teams to score: 82%
No goals (0–0): 1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vanløse vs Nykobing FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vanløse	23%	4.36
	Draw	17%	5.74
	Nykobing FC	60%	1.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	87%	1.15
	Under 2.5	13%	7.74
Both teams to score	Yes	82%	1.22
	No	18%	5.47
Double chance	1X (Vanløse or draw)	40%	2.48
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Nykobing FC)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Nykobing FC win by 2+	42%	2.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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