Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland preview

In the DBU Pokalen fixture between Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland, the 1X2 probabilities show a clear advantage for FC Nordsjaelland at 75%, compared to Esbjerg's 8%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.75 for Esbjerg and 2.51 for FC Nordsjaelland.

The model indicates a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. However, Esbjerg's recent form includes only 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. FC Nordsjaelland has also struggled recently, with 3 wins in their last 6 games, making the outcome less certain.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Esbjerg	Draw	FC Nordsjaelland
Model	8%	17%	75%
Market	—	—	—
Published	8%	17%	75%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.75.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.75Esbjerg

2.51FC Nordsjaelland

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (Esbjerg / FC Nordsjaelland): 1.06 / 0.94
Defence rating (Esbjerg / FC Nordsjaelland): 0.92 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 8.9% 12.1% 10.1% 11.5% 1 2.2% 8.0% 9.1% 7.6% 8.6% 2 1.1% 2.7% 3.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Esbjerg goals. Columns: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Esbjerg	8%	11.93
	Draw	17%	5.96
	FC Nordsjaelland	75%	1.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.03
	No	51%	1.97
Double chance	1X (Esbjerg or draw)	25%	3.98
	12 (either side)	83%	1.20
	X2 (draw or FC Nordsjaelland)	92%	1.09
Handicap -1	FC Nordsjaelland win by 2+	54%	1.87
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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