FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland preview
In the Denmark Superliga fixture between FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Nordsjaelland at 39% and FC Midtjylland at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model. Both teams show potential for scoring, with 60% for both teams to score and a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
FC Nordsjaelland has struggled recently, with five draws and one loss in their last six matches. In contrast, FC Midtjylland has a more positive trend, winning three of their last six games. This difference in form could influence the outcome, making the predictions less certain. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland: model vs market
| Source | FC Nordsjaelland | Draw | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Nordsjaelland, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 2.20 | 2.19 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| FC Midtjylland | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (FC Nordsjaelland / FC Midtjylland)
- 1.06 / 1.29
- Defence rating (FC Nordsjaelland / FC Midtjylland)
- 0.92 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Columns: FC Midtjylland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Nordsjaelland | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| FC Midtjylland | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Nordsjaelland or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Midtjylland) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Nordsjaelland win by 2+ | 12% | 8.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland recent form
FC Nordsjaelland
0W 5D 1L
FC Midtjylland
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Nordsjaelland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Midtjylland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland at home only, FC Midtjylland away only.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Nordsjaelland 4 · draws 2 · FC Midtjylland 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | FC Midtjylland | 2-2 | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-05-10 | FC Nordsjaelland | 0-0 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-03-15 | FC Midtjylland | 0-1 | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-12-14 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2-1 | FC Midtjylland | DBU Pokalen |
| 2025-12-04 | FC Midtjylland | 5-1 | FC Nordsjaelland | DBU Pokalen |
| 2025-11-30 | FC Midtjylland | 6-0 | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1-0 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-04-27 | FC Midtjylland | 5-0 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga |
| 2025-04-22 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3-2 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga |
| 2025-03-02 | FC Midtjylland | 2-1 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Lyngby vs Randers FC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Odense vs Silkeborg 2026-11-01
- Viborg vs AC Horsens 2026-11-01
- Brondby v Aarhus — match page 2026-11-01
- Sonderjyske v FC Copenhagen — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- FC Nordsjaelland, previous: Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland: odds and pick
- FC Nordsjaelland, next: Monaco – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-11-05
- FC Midtjylland, previous: FC Midtjylland v Odense analysis
- FC Midtjylland, next: FC Midtjylland v Ajax analysis